The growth population until 2025. Figure 1
The purpose of this assignment is to see the different opinions between the two views (Cornucopians and Cassandras).
Current human population:
The human population is now so large and is growing rapidly. In the next few years human population is going to be twice bigger than it is now, that means, earth could not support so many population and the problems are going to be many and without solutions.
Causes of increased human population:
Some causes of increased human population are:
- This explosive growth came about because death rates fell faster than birth rates.
- A rise in average life expectancy has also contributed to the surge in human numbers.
- Fertility is the key to population growth over the long term (in order to maintain a stable population size, a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 us needed).
Cornucopian’s and Cassandra’s views:
“Cornucopian is a worldview that we will find ways to make earth’s natural resources meet all of our needs indefinitely and that human ingenuity will see us through any difficulty.” (Brennan Scott, Withgott Jay pg. 200)1
“Cassandra is a worldview that predicts doom and disaster as a result of our environmental impacts.” (Brennan Scott, Withgott Jay pg. 154)2
From my point of view:
Of course there is a problem, considering the fact that the earth’s population has raised dramatically in the last years. Elaborating on that we would say that the existing problem has nothing to do with the space, the earth is huge and it can hold more people than we believe, the actual problem is that if new generations have the same behavior as the previous ones then the problem is the that the earth is going to be destroyed and along with that, mankind. Other than that we know that those who hold the reins are not going to allow overpopulation (i.e. diseases-cancer (they won’t give the medicine out), HIV).
Paul Ehrlich and the IPAT equation:
“Paul Erlich is a biologist and author of the best-selling book The Population Bomb. Since the release of this book in 1968, Ehrlich has been one of the most frequently cited “experts” on environmental issues by the media, despite the fact that his predictions on the fate of the planet, more often than not, have been wrong. In The Population Bomb, Ehrlich predicted that hundreds of millions of people would die of starvation during the 1970s because the earth’s inhabitants would multiply at a faster rate than world’s ability to supply food.” (http://www.nationalcenter.org/dos7111.htm)3
IPAT:IPAT model, it is a variation of a formula proposed in 1974 by Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren. The IPAT model represents how our total impact (I) on the environment results from the interaction among population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T).
I=P x A x T
USA:he population of United States is approximately 311,320,823. A big number of population but is a country that is increasing in technology. (http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/articles/jiec_4_4_13_0.pdf)4
China:The population of China is more than 1,4 billion. China has the biggest population The current affluent size in china is approximately 2,9 million and is going to rise until to 2015. China except the problem of the overpopulation we must say that they are increasing day by day their technology which is something important.(4)
Kosovo:The population of Kosovo is approximately 2 million people. Kosovo is a small country with low technology, low economical situation, moreover, it develops with stable rate.(4)
Paul Erlich Figure 2
Predictions by Paul Erlich:
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970′s the world will undergo famines-hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate, although many lives could be saved through dramatic programs to “stretch” the carrying capacity of the earth by increasing food production. But these programs will only provide a stay of execution unless they are accompanied by determined and successful efforts at population control. Population control is the conscious regulation of the numbers of human beings to meet the needs, not just of individual families, but of society as a whole.
Nothing could be more misleading to our children than our present affluent society. They will inherit a totally different world, a world in which the standards, politics, and economics of the 1960′s are dead. As the most powerful nation in the world today, and its largest consumer, the United States cannot stand isolated. We are today involved in the events leading to famine; tomorrow we may be destroyed by its consequences.” (For further information about the issue visit the following site: (http://brothersjudd.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/reviews.detail/book_id/91)5
Hans Rosling:
“Hans Rosling is professor of international health at Karolinska Institute (KI), the medical university in Stockholm, Sweden. During the last 20 years he performed field surveys investigating outbreaks of konzo in famine threaten remote rural areas in five African
Hans Rosling Figure 3
countries. The causes were traced to a combination of malnutrition and the dietary cyanide from inadequately processed bitter cassava roots that due to hunger were consume without. His research started with analysis of links between poverty, hunger, gender relations and health in small scale farming systems. It now deals with links between health
and absolute poverty at both micro and macro level.”(http://www.oecd.org/speaker/0,3438,en_21571361_31834434_33614811_1_1_1_1,00.html)6
Impressions from the speech of Hans Rosling:
The truth is that we have been impressed from all the speech, it was very interesting how many things we can understand from a diagram. One thing that impressed us it was in the very beginning of the speech who speaks about the western world and developing world the long life in small family and it refers to the western world and the short life in large families and he refers to the developing worlds.
Gapminder
This graph shows the GDP and life expectancy, as you can see during the 1990-1996 has occurred a decrease of GDP this happen because of the fall of
Gapminder table Figure 4
communism. After a 20 years regime under the dictator Enver Hoxha the Albania has become democratic state on 1996 for 6 years there where fight in order to fall the communism regime and to bring democracy.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the population growth rate should be taken as a very serious issue and we should take measures as fast as we can in order to prevent or self facing the total scarce of the resources. I hope that more people start to think in a cassandrian way in order to save our human being from a natural disaster. I hope that everyone takes this issue seriously and we start to take preventive measures to save our beloved earth.
References
(1)Brennan, Scott. “Pg. 200.” N.p.: n.p., n.d. N. pag. Print.
(2)Brennan, Scott. “Pg. 154.” N.p.: n.p., n.d. N. pag. Print.
(3)”Dossier – Dr. Paul Erlich.” Dossier – Dr. Paul Erlich. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Dec. 2012. <http://www.nationalcenter.org/dos7111.htm>.
(4)Chertow, Marian R. “The IPAT Equation and Its Variants.” N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Dec. 2012.
(5)”Review of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb – BrothersJudd.com.” Review of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb – BrothersJudd.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Dec. 2012. <http://brothersjudd.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/reviews.detail/book_id/91>.
(6)”Better Policies for Better Lives.” BPBL. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Dec. 2012. <http://www.oecd.org/speaker/0,3438,en_21571361_31834434_33614811_1_1_1_1,00.html>.
Figure(1) http://www.google.gr/imgres?q=population+growth&num=10&hl=el&tbo=d&biw=1600&bih=719&tbm=isch&tbnid=mTbg63w9_8D7IM:&imgrefurl=http://www.susps.org/overview/numbers.html&docid=Zkj4mm7yQJOxsM&imgurl=http://www.susps.org/images/worldpopgr.gif&w=402&h=306&ei=zzG9UL0F8pvUBffzgWA&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=338&sig=103568936995087857862&page=1&tbnh=133&tbnw=175&start=0&ndsp=30&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0,i:93&tx=119&ty=97
Figure(2) http://www.google.gr/imgres?q=paul+erlich&num=10&um=1&hl=el&tbo=d&biw=1600&bih=719&tbm=isch&tbnid=Lef6naNYA3t2WM:&imgrefurl=http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/03/ehrlich_qa%3FcurrentPage%3Dall&docid=w-r5ZFm8bwANMM&imgurl=http://www.wired.com/images/article/full/2008/03/ehrlich_400px.jpg&w=291&h=400&ei=Byu9UNzQD_Kb1AX384Fg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=485&vpy=138&dur=3560&hovh=263&hovw=191&tx=102&ty=160&sig=103568936995087857862&sqi=2&page=1&tbnh=144&tbnw=105&start=0&ndsp=42&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0,i:91
Figure(3) http://www.google.gr/imgres?q=Hans+Rosling&num=10&hl=el&tbo=d&biw=1600&bih=719&tbm=isch&tbnid=Mz37HRREI9n-vM:&imgrefurl=http://nalakagunawardene.com/2010/02/20/hans-rosling-and-gapminder-unraveling-the-joy-of-stats/&docid=ossnXY6CzhLEBM&imgurl=http://movingimages.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/hans-rosling1.jpg%253Fw%253D780&w=394&h=288&ei=kCu9UMunAYTS0QWkvYCQBQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=1296&vpy=130&dur=177&hovh=192&hovw=263&tx=165&ty=131&sig=103568936995087857862&page=1&tbnh=143&tbnw=196&start=0&ndsp=33&ved=1t:429,r:8,s:0,i:105
Figure (4) http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=5.59290322580644;ti=2011$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj1jiMAkmq1iMg;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNPA;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL_n5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=log;dataMin=283;dataMax=110808$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=18;dataMax=87$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i3_t001800,,,,;modified=75
ronnimani123 